Thursday, May 31, 2007
The Song I'm trippin on now. The song used in the new Hyundai(pronounced hunday/hundie) Elantra on comedy central.
http://www.myspace.com/elantra
Maity says that it is very similar to Manu Chao's Bongo Bong. It does seem to be similar, but this one is way catchier. That wierd peep sound isn't there. And ofcourse his voice isn't there.
My brother wanted to buy a car recently, and I suggested he go for elantra(Give me an ad with good music, and I'm your bakra). He was shocked. He said he'd only go for Jap cars and that before I buy ANY electronic good or specifically a car, I should consult him. Hmm..
http://www.myspace.com/elantra
Maity says that it is very similar to Manu Chao's Bongo Bong. It does seem to be similar, but this one is way catchier. That wierd peep sound isn't there. And ofcourse his voice isn't there.
My brother wanted to buy a car recently, and I suggested he go for elantra(Give me an ad with good music, and I'm your bakra). He was shocked. He said he'd only go for Jap cars and that before I buy ANY electronic good or specifically a car, I should consult him. Hmm..
Labels: Life and its trivial pursuits
Labor market trends in Japan: Trends in income inequality
“Ichioku-Sohchu-ryu”, goes a saying in japanese, which translates to “a hundred million middle class” . Japan has always been known for its equality, largely maintained by its high tax rates . But with the recession and Koizumi’s free market tendencies, income inequality in Japan is on the rise.
Here’s a graph illustrating the gini coefficient(wiki it if not familiar) for Japan ove the last many years.
“Ichioku-Sohchu-ryu”, goes a saying in japanese, which translates to “a hundred million middle class” . Japan has always been known for its equality, largely maintained by its high tax rates . But with the recession and Koizumi’s free market tendencies, income inequality in Japan is on the rise.
Here’s a graph illustrating the gini coefficient(wiki it if not familiar) for Japan ove the last many years.
Here was a graph. Can't get it to upload. Inequality rose form 0.30 two decades back(1980) to 0.38 of recent.
Japan’s after tax inequality has shown a clear rise. This is attributed to many reasons and each one plays a part,
-change of pay from performance based to seniority base
-growth in the number of part time workers
-rising returns to business’s especially the few who survived the downturn
-difference in pay of aged, due to some holding executive position and some surviving on poor state pensions
-decrease in the progressive nature of tax
All these reasons point to why equity has been sacrificed for the sake of efficiency. And it is true that this sacrifice is a bad thing at the moment. Especially for an economy where 75% of the people thought they were middle class to an economy ten years later where 36% think they are poor and 46% only think they are still middle class.
This observation is a good point and very relevant to my model. Essentially what is happening now is people are paying more attention to their surrounding. There are indeed many stories of boys who dropped out of college, faring terribly, while those who stuck around to complete it, receive high pay and holding executive positions. But this was the transition period, where people were not paying attention.
Surveys have shown that 90% percent of the population believes that inequality is cause for worry. And when they see that the country has gone from an economy of equality of opportunity to one where only those on one side of the coin have the opportunity, they feel they need to be on that side. Thus the fundamental assumption of my model, is showing up even in the Japanese economy.
-change of pay from performance based to seniority base
-growth in the number of part time workers
-rising returns to business’s especially the few who survived the downturn
-difference in pay of aged, due to some holding executive position and some surviving on poor state pensions
-decrease in the progressive nature of tax
All these reasons point to why equity has been sacrificed for the sake of efficiency. And it is true that this sacrifice is a bad thing at the moment. Especially for an economy where 75% of the people thought they were middle class to an economy ten years later where 36% think they are poor and 46% only think they are still middle class.
This observation is a good point and very relevant to my model. Essentially what is happening now is people are paying more attention to their surrounding. There are indeed many stories of boys who dropped out of college, faring terribly, while those who stuck around to complete it, receive high pay and holding executive positions. But this was the transition period, where people were not paying attention.
Surveys have shown that 90% percent of the population believes that inequality is cause for worry. And when they see that the country has gone from an economy of equality of opportunity to one where only those on one side of the coin have the opportunity, they feel they need to be on that side. Thus the fundamental assumption of my model, is showing up even in the Japanese economy.
The enrolment and completion of education of students at higher education levels closely follows the rising wage gap.
In time, with the rise in wage gap, more and more students will enrol themselves in higher education. Though the gini inequality will keep increasing since the curve will get lower in the initial parts, I would expect the cut off level, which determines the probability of an individual to acquire skill(or the opportunity gain) will rise. As that rises, the supply of high skilled labor will rise too. And more people will have a share in the pie.
Hence, for the Japanese economy to close the income inequality gap, it must not reinforce higher taxes(as some are suggesting, and as some predict the LDP may infact increase it highest rate from 38% to 40%). As students of the free world, we know, efficiency must not be sacrificed, when equity can be otherwise obtained.
What the state can do is let the market forces operate at the top, but get heavily involved at the bottom, with wage subsidies, or on the job training to encourage those at the bottom to reach the higher bracket.
A last comment on elasticity of substiution of skilled and unskilled labour. In my model as the elasticity of substitution(between skilled and unskilled) goes down, skill premium(skilled wage-unskilled wage) goes up. Thus I would recomment that the governnment’s main role must be to bridge this falling elasticity. Then there is hope to achieve moderate levels of inequality, while infact having all the efficiency benefits of a free economy.
Hence, for the Japanese economy to close the income inequality gap, it must not reinforce higher taxes(as some are suggesting, and as some predict the LDP may infact increase it highest rate from 38% to 40%). As students of the free world, we know, efficiency must not be sacrificed, when equity can be otherwise obtained.
What the state can do is let the market forces operate at the top, but get heavily involved at the bottom, with wage subsidies, or on the job training to encourage those at the bottom to reach the higher bracket.
A last comment on elasticity of substiution of skilled and unskilled labour. In my model as the elasticity of substitution(between skilled and unskilled) goes down, skill premium(skilled wage-unskilled wage) goes up. Thus I would recomment that the governnment’s main role must be to bridge this falling elasticity. Then there is hope to achieve moderate levels of inequality, while infact having all the efficiency benefits of a free economy.
Labels: Economics
Wednesday, May 30, 2007
Current status of the Japanese Economy
I am terribly sorry, but the net has been down the whole day, so I could not do any internet research. This tiny research report is largely from FT.
Labor Market
Ø The Unemployment rate at 3.8% is the lowest in 9 years.
Ø Tight labor market, but wages and prices have not responded.
Ø Household disposable income had dropped by 0.4% this year.
Ø Increasing number of part time workers are blamed on the downward pressure on wages.
Ø Hourly wages in Japan are amongst the lowest in the developed world.
Ø Most of the wealth of the recovering economy is going to the management and shareholders
Ø An increase in minimum wage is being asked for($0.41)
Ø BOJ governor believes productivity increase eventually will help all.
Ø Ratio of jobs to jobseekers rose up to 105 from 103 last quarter
Ø Participation rate of women is going up and putting a downward pressure on wages. Out of 660000 additions to jobseeker, 414000 were women last year
Monetary Policy:
Ø Governor, Bank of Japan is Toshihiko Fukui .
Ø Prices are still falling at an annual rate of 0.2% and hence Hiroko Ota (Japanese Economy Minister) is scared to declare an end to the deflation period.
Ø Yield on short dated Government bonds rose, since there is strong economic news. When there is strong news, expectations of an interest rate rise get formed, and this gets reflected in yields on Government bonds.
Ø Interest rate swaps (wiki it if you are not familiar) have been an indicator of rising bond yield. The swaps are fully pricing in a 25 basis points to 0.75 percent increase by October with a 70% chance of increasing by august. “Not everyone is on board with becoming bearish on the bond. The cynics say they have seen this happen last years, after which poor economic news caused the yields to tumble down.” - FT.
Ø As of yesterday, bond yields stand at 0.955 (on the 2 year JGB)
Ø As of yesterday, bond yields on 10 years JGB stand at 1.745.
Ø In the bond market: Bears expect prices to fall and yields to rise and Bulls expect prices to rise and yields to fall.
Ø Currency trading at 121.278 to the US dollar.
Economy
Ø Average annual growth rate for the last five years = 2%
Ø In the last year, raised interest rates twice, after a dry six year spell that is, economy is finally recovering.
Ø Plus points: Household spending was weak until this quarter when it started picking up. However there is still some uncertainty about future trends
Ø Minus Points: In april, the industrial production figures were weak
Ø Core private sectors machinery orders dropped unexpectedly, plunging 4.5 % since February.
Ø Of recent capital spending figures by companies are both strong and weak, causing uncertainty.
Ø Uncertainty about the independence of central bank from Politics
Finance
Private equity groups are venturing full on into areas, where the Japanese themselves fear to tread, especially Japanese consumer finance groups.
That ends a short report. If I have time in the night, I'll try to do a short report of the last decade in Japan. But highly unlikely.
Next in this Series: One of the Middle east countries.
I am terribly sorry, but the net has been down the whole day, so I could not do any internet research. This tiny research report is largely from FT.
Labor Market
Ø The Unemployment rate at 3.8% is the lowest in 9 years.
Ø Tight labor market, but wages and prices have not responded.
Ø Household disposable income had dropped by 0.4% this year.
Ø Increasing number of part time workers are blamed on the downward pressure on wages.
Ø Hourly wages in Japan are amongst the lowest in the developed world.
Ø Most of the wealth of the recovering economy is going to the management and shareholders
Ø An increase in minimum wage is being asked for($0.41)
Ø BOJ governor believes productivity increase eventually will help all.
Ø Ratio of jobs to jobseekers rose up to 105 from 103 last quarter
Ø Participation rate of women is going up and putting a downward pressure on wages. Out of 660000 additions to jobseeker, 414000 were women last year
Monetary Policy:
Ø Governor, Bank of Japan is Toshihiko Fukui .
Ø Prices are still falling at an annual rate of 0.2% and hence Hiroko Ota (Japanese Economy Minister) is scared to declare an end to the deflation period.
Ø Yield on short dated Government bonds rose, since there is strong economic news. When there is strong news, expectations of an interest rate rise get formed, and this gets reflected in yields on Government bonds.
Ø Interest rate swaps (wiki it if you are not familiar) have been an indicator of rising bond yield. The swaps are fully pricing in a 25 basis points to 0.75 percent increase by October with a 70% chance of increasing by august. “Not everyone is on board with becoming bearish on the bond. The cynics say they have seen this happen last years, after which poor economic news caused the yields to tumble down.” - FT.
Ø As of yesterday, bond yields stand at 0.955 (on the 2 year JGB)
Ø As of yesterday, bond yields on 10 years JGB stand at 1.745.
Ø In the bond market: Bears expect prices to fall and yields to rise and Bulls expect prices to rise and yields to fall.
Ø Currency trading at 121.278 to the US dollar.
Economy
Ø Average annual growth rate for the last five years = 2%
Ø In the last year, raised interest rates twice, after a dry six year spell that is, economy is finally recovering.
Ø Plus points: Household spending was weak until this quarter when it started picking up. However there is still some uncertainty about future trends
Ø Minus Points: In april, the industrial production figures were weak
Ø Core private sectors machinery orders dropped unexpectedly, plunging 4.5 % since February.
Ø Of recent capital spending figures by companies are both strong and weak, causing uncertainty.
Ø Uncertainty about the independence of central bank from Politics
Finance
Private equity groups are venturing full on into areas, where the Japanese themselves fear to tread, especially Japanese consumer finance groups.
That ends a short report. If I have time in the night, I'll try to do a short report of the last decade in Japan. But highly unlikely.
Next in this Series: One of the Middle east countries.
Labels: Economy research
Tuesday, May 29, 2007
Hello everyone.
Now that my thesis is on tract, and all the hardpart(modelling+programming) is done and my orals are only in the last week of june, its time I start reading on other things.
I love timetables, and I spend half my time making them.
I have now made a time table for my blog.
Every Monday and wednesday: Economy Update: I choose a country-do a two hour research and try and write a short article
Every Tuesday, Thursday and Friday: Labor market trends and policies in an economy- short article
Every Sat- Chini and I willl be at Starbucks. So no post.
Every Sun- Frivolous personal stuff
Today ofcourse, I write about Japan. Chini wanted an update. Let the research begin!!
Now that my thesis is on tract, and all the hardpart(modelling+programming) is done and my orals are only in the last week of june, its time I start reading on other things.
I love timetables, and I spend half my time making them.
I have now made a time table for my blog.
Every Monday and wednesday: Economy Update: I choose a country-do a two hour research and try and write a short article
Every Tuesday, Thursday and Friday: Labor market trends and policies in an economy- short article
Every Sat- Chini and I willl be at Starbucks. So no post.
Every Sun- Frivolous personal stuff
Today ofcourse, I write about Japan. Chini wanted an update. Let the research begin!!
Labels: Blog
Sunday, May 27, 2007
Before Ballet class..I love ballet-better than gymnastics actually! If I stick around in Singapore, I'll continue it. .A few pics (before I headed of for class. .) Forgot to carry the shoes to the loo..
Labels: ballet
Thursday, May 24, 2007
This is how I look like when I'm taking tension*:
The measure of income inequality has turned out to be a complex number. hmm..if only we lived in the times of the barter,and income inequality was in fact imaginary..my current program would have worked. If only...
The measure of income inequality has turned out to be a complex number. hmm..if only we lived in the times of the barter,and income inequality was in fact imaginary..my current program would have worked. If only...Labels: Economics
Wednesday, May 23, 2007
A tribute to 22 years of life well spent.
I have had the best childhood anybody could have asked for, not experienced a moment of great sadness, been loved so much...that there is so much gratitude and love I feel,today, for my parents and my brother, for making me thankful everyday for being blessed with the best family, and for having been given the gift of life. I love all of you so much!
And to :
-Childhood friends in the small town of hubli for spending a life of careless and carefree-ness;
-Fellow convent educated bumchums and absolute angels in Sophia's;
-Fellow chlorinated pals at the Pool, with whom I shared most of the angst of teenage, and umm muscular limbs.
-Smart, sweet, modest,funny, absolute gems and fellow sufferers in NPS;
-The bums in Stephen's, for adding a whole new dimension to my life, all of whom I love so very much;
-My wonderful friends here at Singapore, for teaching me lot more than how lazy I am compared to them and making my stay so enlightening and fun!!
-Other friends..
-Relatives
-etc.
A big thank to all of you for making me who I am today!!
I have had the best childhood anybody could have asked for, not experienced a moment of great sadness, been loved so much...that there is so much gratitude and love I feel,today, for my parents and my brother, for making me thankful everyday for being blessed with the best family, and for having been given the gift of life. I love all of you so much!
And to :
-Childhood friends in the small town of hubli for spending a life of careless and carefree-ness;
-Fellow convent educated bumchums and absolute angels in Sophia's;
-Fellow chlorinated pals at the Pool, with whom I shared most of the angst of teenage, and umm muscular limbs.
-Smart, sweet, modest,funny, absolute gems and fellow sufferers in NPS;
-The bums in Stephen's, for adding a whole new dimension to my life, all of whom I love so very much;
-My wonderful friends here at Singapore, for teaching me lot more than how lazy I am compared to them and making my stay so enlightening and fun!!
-Other friends..
-Relatives
-etc.
A big thank to all of you for making me who I am today!!
Labels: Post number 100
There is no greater joy, then having a program you wrote(but not necessarily understood:)) actually RUN!!
It's the best bday gift I could have asked for.
Now there is hope for my graduating on time!!!
It's the best bday gift I could have asked for.
Now there is hope for my graduating on time!!!
Labels: Economics
Sunday, May 20, 2007
Honour killing of Yazidi Dua.
A Yazidi girl of 17 stoned to death, by her own relatives, in such a brutal way-even when the kudish religious texts do not sanction such acts.
What kind of people are they?
A Yazidi girl of 17 stoned to death, by her own relatives, in such a brutal way-even when the kudish religious texts do not sanction such acts.
What kind of people are they?
Monday, May 14, 2007
Such a perfect day!
For the first time in Sooooooooooo long, I have felt, that my life is on track.
I have a fixed plan atleast for the next few months. And I'm glad for that.
And many things to accomplish.
I'll be in Delhi(yeah!!)- end July and then Bangalore - beginning August, and then Back to Singapore for a few more months..
But then the song finishes(The perfect Day-Lou Reed). And I get back to the painlful conversion of fortran to Matlab. For now I have two BIG hurdles to cross,
1st hurdle: Clear the Oral Exam
2nd hurdle: Get a Masters degree
For the first time in Sooooooooooo long, I have felt, that my life is on track.
I have a fixed plan atleast for the next few months. And I'm glad for that.
And many things to accomplish.
I'll be in Delhi(yeah!!)- end July and then Bangalore - beginning August, and then Back to Singapore for a few more months..
But then the song finishes(The perfect Day-Lou Reed). And I get back to the painlful conversion of fortran to Matlab. For now I have two BIG hurdles to cross,
1st hurdle: Clear the Oral Exam
2nd hurdle: Get a Masters degree
Labels: Economics etc.
Saturday, May 12, 2007
Killing two birds with stone...or ditch the birds, I'm gonna die anyway.
Here's whats happened. I used to do all my macro modeling programs in this convenient software called Dynare.
But stubborn Mr D is only meant for people who live infinitely.
My current model assumes that people do die. So Mr D is confused and will not run my program.
Hence, I have shifted to the all knowing MAtlab. But I have never done large scale level programming there. Problem 1.
Then I get it touch with the nice lady who has worked in the area I'm working in and ask her to send me her programs.
She does, but its in bloody painful Fortran.
My supervisor(who has not been told, that I am familiar with C++ programming) says Fortran takes months to learn and yours truly needs to get her fat ass off this place in two months. Fortran is out. Matlab is in.
Hence I am currently converting a n*1000 line code from Fortran to Matlab. In the process,*swearing*l, I have both Fortran help and Matlab help open. Now that I am learning both these languages..I just HAVE to get a PhD. I can't imagine putting these skills to waste...
I have 48 hours to finish the first set of conversion. In between a 2 hour ballet class and lunch with my aunt..
Time to play, I will survive by CAKE.
That song does wonders for my mood!! I love CAKE:)
Here's whats happened. I used to do all my macro modeling programs in this convenient software called Dynare.
But stubborn Mr D is only meant for people who live infinitely.
My current model assumes that people do die. So Mr D is confused and will not run my program.
Hence, I have shifted to the all knowing MAtlab. But I have never done large scale level programming there. Problem 1.
Then I get it touch with the nice lady who has worked in the area I'm working in and ask her to send me her programs.
She does, but its in bloody painful Fortran.
My supervisor(who has not been told, that I am familiar with C++ programming) says Fortran takes months to learn and yours truly needs to get her fat ass off this place in two months. Fortran is out. Matlab is in.
Hence I am currently converting a n*1000 line code from Fortran to Matlab. In the process,*swearing*l, I have both Fortran help and Matlab help open. Now that I am learning both these languages..I just HAVE to get a PhD. I can't imagine putting these skills to waste...
I have 48 hours to finish the first set of conversion. In between a 2 hour ballet class and lunch with my aunt..
Time to play, I will survive by CAKE.
That song does wonders for my mood!! I love CAKE:)
Labels: Economics etc.
Tuesday, May 08, 2007
I'm thinking of temporarily changing my heading to "Reporting about Inequality from workstation 9"
In this weeks CEPR news letter, they announced a workshop in Washington on Income inquality. A line said,
"This workshop should be of particular interest to anyone who thinks that the important question is not what's happening on Wall Street, but how well is the economy working for all us"
Always my sentiment. The one big reason that's holding me back from wanting to enter head on into the field of Finance. Because I believe that there are more pressing issues we have to deal with. However, if the losers in those Wall street crashes were the wealthy, then maybe temporarily the economy would be better off. But thats just wishful thinking.
My thesis is currently on wage inequality in China and India. I wanted to put up something, but currently its all math. When my theory is well substantiated I will put up a short article on my proposition.
The book CEPR is promoting is available at
http://thenewpress.com/index.php?option=com_title&task=view_title&metaproductid=1540
On this other hand, a more interesting and more controversial point of view is expressed by GM and his friends(I seem to think that they are very text book bound) is available at
http://www.american.com/archive/2007/may-june-magazine-contents/the-upside-of-income-inequality/
...The upside of income inequality!! The argument is fascinating and timely, since I am researching into the costs of education people are willing to bear to become skilled and avail a higher wage. Especially with regard to China and India. Maybe I will find some non monotonicity in wage inequality when I get my bloody matlab program running.
Hopefully by this weekend, I'll have a small write up.
Do post comments on your views of income inequality that you see around you. Regional, Urban-rural, inter industry or intra industry etc.
In this weeks CEPR news letter, they announced a workshop in Washington on Income inquality. A line said,
"This workshop should be of particular interest to anyone who thinks that the important question is not what's happening on Wall Street, but how well is the economy working for all us"
Always my sentiment. The one big reason that's holding me back from wanting to enter head on into the field of Finance. Because I believe that there are more pressing issues we have to deal with. However, if the losers in those Wall street crashes were the wealthy, then maybe temporarily the economy would be better off. But thats just wishful thinking.
My thesis is currently on wage inequality in China and India. I wanted to put up something, but currently its all math. When my theory is well substantiated I will put up a short article on my proposition.
The book CEPR is promoting is available at
http://thenewpress.com/index.php?option=com_title&task=view_title&metaproductid=1540
On this other hand, a more interesting and more controversial point of view is expressed by GM and his friends(I seem to think that they are very text book bound) is available at
http://www.american.com/archive/2007/may-june-magazine-contents/the-upside-of-income-inequality/
...The upside of income inequality!! The argument is fascinating and timely, since I am researching into the costs of education people are willing to bear to become skilled and avail a higher wage. Especially with regard to China and India. Maybe I will find some non monotonicity in wage inequality when I get my bloody matlab program running.
Hopefully by this weekend, I'll have a small write up.
Do post comments on your views of income inequality that you see around you. Regional, Urban-rural, inter industry or intra industry etc.
Labels: Economics
Tuesday, May 01, 2007
Spider-Man 3
What can I say. I was able to sit through the movie. But I also sat through Mohabattein(I can't believe Chini liked that movie). I was weeping during the movie..because I used the hand that ate the corn puffs to rub my eyes. I was so embarassed that someone might think the movie made me cry. That was a terrible movie.
Back to Spidey.
Good things about the movie.
1. Topher Grace. I always had a crush on him. That 70's show.
2. Some resemblance of a plotline. Shows human side of villians
3. Good effects?(I wouldn't know..but the movie seemed to have been a product of some effort)
Bad things about the movie.
1. Spiderman's double chin
2. Spiderman's paunch
3. Spiderman's voice
4. Spiderman's unmanly crying, with his double chin showing
5. Spiderman's evil look
6. The Sand man. I just didn't like him...
7. No real villian
8. Too long..my popcorn got over halfway through
9. Mary Jane attempting to sing
10. Making a joke of science..back to the sandman..what a freak!
For those who haven't watched it yet, I hope this review really really lowers your expectation.
PS Sorry chini, I decided last minute and there was only one ticket left for the show.
9.
What can I say. I was able to sit through the movie. But I also sat through Mohabattein(I can't believe Chini liked that movie). I was weeping during the movie..because I used the hand that ate the corn puffs to rub my eyes. I was so embarassed that someone might think the movie made me cry. That was a terrible movie.
Back to Spidey.
Good things about the movie.
1. Topher Grace. I always had a crush on him. That 70's show.
2. Some resemblance of a plotline. Shows human side of villians
3. Good effects?(I wouldn't know..but the movie seemed to have been a product of some effort)
Bad things about the movie.
1. Spiderman's double chin
2. Spiderman's paunch
3. Spiderman's voice
4. Spiderman's unmanly crying, with his double chin showing
5. Spiderman's evil look
6. The Sand man. I just didn't like him...
7. No real villian
8. Too long..my popcorn got over halfway through
9. Mary Jane attempting to sing
10. Making a joke of science..back to the sandman..what a freak!
For those who haven't watched it yet, I hope this review really really lowers your expectation.
PS Sorry chini, I decided last minute and there was only one ticket left for the show.
9.
Labels: Movies
